It's that time again, less than two hours before the event and all I have time for now is just the very quick picks for UFC 88. It's another one of those UFC cards that on paper looks average, even with Chuck Liddell and Dan Henderson on it, but as it often happens can turn out to be quite exciting.
Roan Carneiro Vs. Ryo Chonan - I really hope this one actually makes it on the PPV. Roan Jucao Carneiro was one of the very few fighters that had Jon Fitch in real trouble. Not an easy fit by any standards. Coming off an upset loss to Kevin Burns he should bounce back and beat Chonan by TKO. Ryo Chonan is a Japanese journeyman who's biggest accomplishment was catching the great Anderson Silva by a jumping scissors to a heelhook submission, but hey, at least is a great accomplishment. Should be a good fight due to Chonan's resiliency.
Jason Lambert Vs. Jason MacDonald - this match up feels like a "retirement from UFC for a while" party for Jason Lambert who has now dropped down to 185. Probably in hopes of better luck. It's an annoying trend nowadays. Lose a few fights and blame it on the fact that other guys are just "too big and strong". Yep, forget the fact that they might have done a few more pushups than you and are just a bit more skilled than you in some areas. Lambert is doing exactly this. He got TKO'd in his losses, not taken down and held down by a bigger stronger fighter. Another loss in the new for him 185 category should teach him a good lesson hopefully. It's about skill stupid! Plus, according to Jason MacDonald pendulum record, he is due for a win. Picking MacDonald by submission quickly.
Tim Boetsch Vs. Michael Patt - Patt has had a few decent wins in Bodog event and is decent on the ground with 12 submissions. Tim Boetsch is the famous for introduction to the world of the very unique style of combat Judo, the brutal "Redneck Judo". He instantly won over a great deal of fans, me including. He was just so much fun to watch and he was kicking ass while at it. Even though Matt Hamill put a damper on his quest for championship, Tim is more focused than ever and I'm sure his "Redneck Judo" is a sharp and unrefined as ever. Picking Boetsch by a vicious throw on a head.
Thiago Tavares Vs. Kurt Pellegrino - Tavares burst on the scene with some of the smoothest jiu-jitsu around and the hype around him was quite strong for a while. But you could see chinks in his beautiful jiu-jitsu based game. Tyson Griffin beat him by a close decision, then a judoka Michihiro Omigawa gave him a good run for his money. Many said Tavares had an off night, but truth was that just beautiful jiu-jitsu may simply not be enough. Matt Wiman proved that, he wasn't afraid of it and KO'd Tavares. Kurt Pellegrino can eat a huge kick and still keep coming. His record isn't the most stellar but he's been in some tough fights. I'm picking Pellegrino to get through the ground assault by Tavares and use his improved striking to beat Tavares, just follow Wiman's blueprint.
Dong Hyun Kim Vs. Matt Brown - Matt Brown is certainly tough and can win fights and finish them, but he HAD to get better at starting to fight sooner in his fights. You can not take a bunch of damage and hope it doesn't affect you too much when you're finally ready to fight back. Kim is an unknown, but based on his record it sounds like he will too come out and hurt Matt Brown for a while and may be Matt Brown will fight back or may be he won't.
Picking Kim to start out early and not give Brown a chance to be in a condition to fight back effectively.
Martin Kampmann Vs. Nate Marquardt - Martin Kampmann is cool, awesome combo of dutch striking with improving ground game. However I believe in Nate Marquardt. His destruction of Jeremy Horn made me believe a little longer in his dream to eventually get a crack at Anderson Silva again. Marquardt's loss to Thales Leites was due to questionable fouls. Picking Marquardt to finish Kampmann.
Dan Henderson Vs. Rousimar Palhares - Palhares is a little muscle tank with some very slick jiu-jitsu who in his UFC debut not only submitted a very slick himself Ivan Salaverry with an armbar from back mount but also made Joe Rogan cry on the broadcast with that move. I mean honestly, while not a common move in MMA to date, it is a very common and real simple move in grappling. I just wish Joe Rogan was the one commentating Shinya Aoki pulling off gogo plata from the mount to see and hear Rogan's reaction. He would have blown up from all the excitement. Dan Henderson coming off two tough losses to two super tough guys in Andreson Silva and Rampage Jackson. He's really due to bounce back as he usually does and once again make an example of his opponent. Palhares definitely poses danger to Henderson, but Henderson's experience should bring him victory. Picking Henderson
Rich Franklin Vs. Matt Hamill - Is this a 205 fight? I'm guessing 185 is a pointless division for Franklin to be in so for now he's just going to do fights. No real meaning or a goal. And why not? Beating Anderson Silva is out of question for a few years if ever. He should be just as successful at 205 as he was at 185. May be a good move. Hamill isn't exactly an easy fight to try moving up a category. Franklin should have no problem dealing with Hamill's strong wrestling and hard punching. Picking Franklin
Chuck Liddell Vs. Rashad Evans - I don't know why but I'm not excited about this fight at all. Rashad has amazing potential, but he himself is his only hinderance to being great. He had nothing to be afraid of in his fight with Tito, for 2 rounds he stopped himself from beating Tito up exactly the same way he beat him up in the third. If he didn't get over the fact that he is now part of the more famous fighters and should not be afraid to punch them or take them down, he'll hurt his chances bad against Chuck Liddell. Because unlike Tito, Chuck will actually hurt him. Things are just not looking good for Rashad, he hasn't fought for almost a year, he's tentative with celebrities, his height disadvantage. Picking Chuck Liddell by TKO by Chuck's own sprawl-and-counter (tm). He was sharp against Wanderlei Silva and looked excited again to be fighting. Just hope that is still there.
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